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Hurricane Ian’s “extremely dangerous” eyewall – just shy of Category 5 strength – is moving onshore in southwestern Florida, with the storm poised to inflict “catastrophic” winds, storm surge and flooding across a large portion of the state, forecasters say.
Now at Category 4 with sustained winds of 155 mph, Ian’s center was about 45 miles southwest of Punta Gorda around noon ET and is expected to make landfall, perhaps north of Fort Myers near the Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda areas, by early Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.
Much of west-central Florida and places inland face disaster: “Historic” storm surge up to 18 feet is possible and could swallow coastal homes; rain could cause flooding across much of the state; and crushing winds could flatten homes and stop electricity service for days or weeks.
Ian is slowing as it approaches land, and that will cause the worst conditions to remain over some areas for eight or more hours. And for those who didn’t heed evacuation orders along flood-prone coasts, a dire instruction: people should “move to upper floors to escape rising water if necessary,” the National Weather Service said.
Ian’s winds could be catastrophic
Category 4: 130-156 mph
Category 5: 157+ mph
“It’s time to hunker down and prepare for this storm,” Gov. Ron DeSanits said around 8 a.m., stressing it was too late in many areas to evacuate because key paths outward were closing. “This is a powerful storm that should be treated like you would treat” a tornado approaching your home.
After pummeling Cuba on Tuesday, leaving at least two dead and an islandwide blackout, Ian took aim at Florida’s vulnerable Gulf Coast, where residents had been boarding up and leaving in droves on congested highways. More than 2.5 million people were advised to flee, including 1.75 million under mandatory evacuation orders – no small ask in a state with a large elderly population, some of whom have to be moved from long-term care centers.
Storm surge already was rising late Thursday morning – more than 4.5 feet above normal highest tides was recorded before noon in Naples, already higher than the previous record there of 4.02 feet from Hurricane Irma in 2017.
Ian poses several major dangers:
• Storm surge: Some 12 to 18 feet of seawater pushed onto land is forecast Wednesday for the coastal Fort Myers area, from Englewood to Bonita Beach, forecasters said. Only slightly less is forecast for a stretch from Bonita Beach down to near the Everglades (8 to 12 feet), and from near Bradenton to Englewood (6 to 10 feet), forecasters said.
Lower – but still life-threatening – surge is possible elsewhere, including north of Tampa and along Florida’s northeast coast near Jacksonville.
• Winds: Southwest Florida is facing “catastrophic wind damage.” Winds near the core of Hurricane Ian could exceed 150 mph, with gusts up to 190 mph, the hurricane center said.
Ian is expected to retain hurricane strength for some time as it crosses the peninsula, with hurricane warnings issued for not only southwest Florida but also much of central Florida from coast to coast.
• Flooding rain: 12 to 24 inches of rain could fall in central and northeastern Florida – including Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. That makes for a top-of-scale risk for flooding rainfall across this area.
After plowing Wednesday into southwest Florida, Ian’s center is expected move over central Florida through Thursday morning. Heavy rain also is possible in South Florida, as well as eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.
“Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected” across central and southern Florida, the hurricane center said. Considerable flooding also is possible elsewhere in Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through the weekend, the hurricane center said.
“This is a wind storm and a surge storm and a flood storm, all in one. And this is going spread itself out across the entire state. Everybody is going to see something from this,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said.
By late Thursday, Ian is due to emerge over the Atlantic Ocean, where it could strengthen again and affect another part of the US.
Parts of far southern Florida by early Wednesday morning had begun feeling the storm’s effects, with tropical storm-force winds and at least two possible tornadoes reported in Broward County, including at North Perry Airport, where planes and hangers were damaged. Major flooding was being reported in Key West due to storm surge, along with power outages.
Schools, supermarkets, theme parks, hospitals and airports had announced closures. The Navy moved its ships, and the Coast Guard has shut down ports.
And more than 330,000 Florida utility customers already were without power as of around noon, according to PowerOutage.us.
As winds pick up, gas stations may temporarily run out of fuel, DeSantis said.
In Tampa, police went door to door Tuesday in a mandatory evacuation zone, making sure residents were ready to flee. Earlier projections had Ian on track to slam Tampa Bay, and even as the hurricane’s path shifted south, mandatory evacuations and preparations continued, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said.
Law enforcement officials around the state warned that people who stayed behind in evacuation areas cannot expect rescuers to respond to calls for help during the storm when winds are high.
“If you call for help, once we pull (officers) off the road … we’re not coming. … We’re not putting people in peril when (others) didn’t heed the mandatory evacuation order,” Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said Wednesday.
Not everyone moved. Chelsye Napier, of Fort Myers, stayed home with her fiance and cats despite being in an evacuation zone, she told CNN Wednesday. They waited “because we don’t know anyone down here,” and ultimately decided to stay put, she said.
“If anything happens, we have everything that we need here. We’ve got food, we got water. We have everything that we need here,” she said. “So it’s all OK for right now. We’ll see, though, later on.”
Preparations across Florida have been underway for days as residents braced for Ian’s wrath. People lined up to pick up sandbags and flocked to stores to stock up on supplies like water and batteries.
And as the hurricane marched closer, the closures began.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Amy Beth Bennett/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/AP
Gary and Sharon Adams clear their yard of debris in Hollywood, Florida, on Wednesday, September 28.
water was receding from Tampa Bay due to a negative storm surge on Wednesday.” class=”gallery-image__dam-img” height=”1333″/>Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Steve Helber/AP
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Wilfredo Lee/AP
An airplane is overturned in Pembroke Pines, Florida, on Wednesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Marco Bello/Reuters
A TV crew broadcasts from the beach in Fort Myers, Florida, on Wednesday.
Officials believe it was caused by a tornado fueled by Hurricane Ian.” class=”gallery-image__dam-img” height=”1265″/>Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Greg Lovett/The Palm Beach Post/USA Today Network
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Highways in Tampa, Florida, are empty Wednesday ahead of Hurricane Ian making landfall. Several coastal counties in western Florida were under mandatory evacuations.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Joe Cavaretta/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP
Zuram Rodriguez surveys the damage around her home in Davie, Florida, early on Wednesday.
causing an islandwide blackout.” class=”gallery-image__dam-img” height=”1953″/>Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Ramon Espinosa/AP
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Chris O’Meara/AP
Workers board up windows on the University of Tampa campus on Tuesday, September 27.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images
People walk through a flooded street in Batabano, Cuba, on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Chris O’Meara/AP
Southwest Airlines passengers check in near a sign that shows canceled flights at the Tampa International Airport on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Ramon Espinosa/AP
Maria Llonch retrieves belongings from her home in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel via AP
Traffic builds along Interstate 4 in Tampa on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters
A man carries his children through rain and debris in Pinar del Rio on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters
People drive through debris in Pinar del Rio on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Frederic and Mary Herodet board up their Gulf Bistro restaurant in St. Pete Beach, Florida, on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images
People stand outside a flooded warehouse in Batabano on Tuesday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
NASA’s Artemis I rocket rolls back to the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Tuesday. The launch of the rocket was postponed due to the impending arrival of Hurricane Ian.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
NASA via AP
Hurricane Ian is seen from the International Space Station on Monday, September 26.
Hurricane Ian reaches Cuba on Monday.” class=”gallery-image__dam-img” height=”1145″/>Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images
A Cuban family transports personal belongings to a safe place in the Fanguito neighborhood of Havana on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Local residents fill sandbags in Tampa on Monday to help protect their homes from flooding.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty Images
A family carries a dog to a safe place in Batabano on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP
People wait in lines to fuel their vehicles at a Costco store in Orlando on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Mike Lang/USA Today Network
Ryan Copenhaver, manager of Siesta T’s in Sarasota, Florida, installs hurricane panels over the store’s windows on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Kevin Morales/AP
A woman takes photos while waves crash against a seawall in George Town, Grand Cayman, on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Imagaes
A man helps pull small boats out of Cuba’s Havana Bay on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Gregg Newton/AFP via Getty Images
Shelves are empty in a supermarket’s water aisle in Kissimmee, Florida, on Monday.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Martha Asencio-Rhine/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
Cathie Perkins, emergency management director in Pinellas County, Florida, references a map on Monday that indicates where storm surges would impact the county. During a news conference, she urged anyone living in those areas to evacuate.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
NOAA/NASA
This satellite image, taken Monday at 1 p.m. ET, shows Hurricane Ian near Cuba.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Andrew West/USA Today Network
Sarah Peterson fills sandbags in Fort Myers Beach, Florida, on Saturday, September 24.
Photos: Hurricane Ian threatens Florida
Andrew West/USA Today Network
Besnik Bushati fills gas containers at a gas station in Naples, Florida, on Saturday. The station had only premium gas that morning.
Across Florida, 58 school districts have announced closures due to storm as campuses turned into shelters for evacuees. Disney World is set to close Wednesday and Thursday, as is Kennedy Space Center’s Visitor Complex. And hundreds of Publix grocery stores shut their doors Tuesday evening, expected to remain closed through Thursday.
As millions were told evacuate, 176 shelters opened statewide and hotels and Airbnbs opened to people leaving evacuation zones, DeSantis said.
Local governments and state agencies also prepared those living in nursing homes and other senior care facilities to evacuate.
Florida has around 6 million residents over the age of 60, according to the state’s Department of Elder Affairs – nearly 30% of its total population. As of Tuesday, all adult day cares, senior community cafes and transportation services in evacuation zones are closed, according to the department.
Authorities also readied services to fan out and respond to calls for rescue and then, in the aftermath of the hurricane, for recovery and repair efforts.
Nearly 400 ambulances, buses and support vehicles were responding to areas where the hurricane was expected to make landfall, according to the governor’s office.
DeSantis activated 5,000 Florida National Guard members for Ian’s response operations, and 2,000 more guardsmen from Tennessee, Georgia and North Carolina were being activated to assist.
Florida urban search and rescue teams also were prepping.
“We have five state teams that are activated with additional five FEMA teams that are in play,” Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis said at a news conference Tuesday night. “We have over 600 resources to bear in addition to these out-of-town teams.”
When the hurricane hits, rising water is expected to move inland from the coastline, bringing life-threatening inundation and flooding to coastal areas.
Millions of people are under a storm surge warning, including the Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay and the Dry Tortugas. The warning is also in place on the state’s east coast from the Flagler-Volusia county line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River and along the St. Johns River.
After landfall, Ian is expected to crawl across the central part of the state Wednesday into Thursday morning, with damaging winds bringing the threat of tornadoes, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The slow churn over will “dump an enormous amount of rain on the state of Florida,” DeSantis said.
Ian is expected to dump at least two to three months’ worth of rainfall by Friday. Central and Northeast Florida is expected to get 12 to 24 inches of rain, while the Florida Keys and South Florida could get 6 to 12 inches, and eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina could receive 4 to 12 inches.
